Is it just me? Direct fire weapons are missing their target at a deceptively high rate. Methodology: If mech A fires a PPC with a 70% chance to hit and mech 2 fires an AC/5 with an 80% chance to hit, and so on, then I would expect the number of hits to be about: [(P1 + P2 .... Pn)/n] X #attempts
After 100 attempts (and 3 repeats) I got the following results from direct-fire weapon hits group 1: average probability to hit (sum (Pn)/n) = 64.5%, actual number of hits: 36/100, group 2: average probability to hit (sum (Pn)/n) = 67%, actual number of hits: 29/100, group 3--for this group I made a point to be at close range: average probability to hit (sum (Pn)/n) = 84%, actual number of hits: 44/100,
Ironically, missile fire is remarkably consistent group 1: average probability to hit (sum (Pn)/n) = 77%, actual number of hits: 79/100, group 2: average probability to hit (sum (Pn)/n) = 39%, actual number of hits: 31/100, group 3: average probability to hit (sum (Pn)/n) = 48%, actual number of hits: 49/100,
Maybe I'm jerking my trigger finger when I fire? I don't know how I could compare to AI results since I don't know how to view AI's to-hit chances.
My best guess is that there are additional modifiers getting added after the fact, such as target occlusion. That is, suppose you have an 80% to hit a target but the target is 50% obscured by terrain. That means half of your 80% are chuffs in the dirt between shooter and target.
Yeah, this mod currently does not seem to be working as intended. I didn't catalog as carefully, but over the course of 5 or 6 missions I estimate that my actual hit chance with a PPC showing anywhere between a 70-85% chance to hit to be more around 30%. I thought maybe I'm just super unlucky, but seeing this, there's no way that all that it does is remove streakbreaker bonuses and make hit chance more in line with what the game shows, which is how it''s advertised. I did notice that missiles seem to work normally and M Lasers were not missing nearly as often as my PPCs were, even though they overall had an average lower hit chance.
Any idea if this is working for 1.04? I had some weird or really, really unlucky results over a decent play time. I know it's merciless, that's not my question though. Thanks
Hey, I just wanted to clarify something. In-game, the chances (aside from streak-breaking) aren't weighted in any way. The only thing that happens is that the DISPLAY of those chances is weighted with the whole "high percentage chances are less common, low percentage chances are more common" or whatever rule.
So if this mod changes the chance to hit to that of the DISPLAY, I dunno, that's not something I'm looking for. That's why I was using Real Hit Chance, since it changed the display to match the actual hit chances.
So does this mod actual change the chances to hit to match that display? Would it be possible to just make a version of this mod that avoids the streak-breaking mechanics without touching the chances? (I think the chances to hit are fine, I just don't like being lied to about them)
Hey, i don't know who to ask, maybe you look for this already.
Does bots have better chance to hit head? My mercenaries have injure really often. Like every 2-3 battles. I guess it needed for game, but without called strike it's like 2% to hit head.
Maybe it helps to understand the mod better if the mechanic of these correction rolls are explained with an example. I've played a couple of contracts so far but can't really say at all if it makes a difference. This is all too vague.
Thanks for the explanation in the mod description! What means future attacks: are these corrections done only for following turns or also done during an all-out attack, especially during a missile multi-attack? So the game originally punches in a kind of random(x)^2 booster to strengthen the losing and winning side based on past results. I guess these corrections are still not enough for some people crying on forums about RNG all the time. Okay, so it's pointless to further use the Real Hit Chances mod if someone prefers unpolished results. Goddess Fortuna strongly recommends this mod!
It's not a fix to make game less random. And random is fine, people are f***ed. Basically developers are made fix for all this "i have 90% to hit, why i miss".
You don't need this mod, untill you a computer with calculator inside. Untill this, vanilla is fine. For this game, ofc, there you don't have to shoot with 40% chance often.
I actually wondered if hits/misses were influenced with AI help or not. With all the missile volleys ive done, it has always seemed there was some outside influence with all the hits. Probably will be a few days before i have a chance to test this out. I am interested to see the effects tho.
The mod is technically compatible with Real Hit Chances, but Real Hit Chances works via applying the correction formula to the hit chances that get displayed to you.
SInce this mod disables that formula from being applied in the first place, Real Hit Chances will just lie to you while this mod is active.
I'd also like to know if this will be compatible with Real Hit Chance.
However, I have another question:
I get what you mean by streaks. But what do you mean by "making good shots even likelier to hit" and "making bad shots even less likelier to hit." It might be nice for you to put in the description what the formula was before and what you changed.
17 comments
Methodology: If mech A fires a PPC with a 70% chance to hit and mech 2 fires an AC/5 with an 80% chance to hit, and so on, then I would expect the number of hits to be about:
[(P1 + P2 .... Pn)/n] X #attempts
After 100 attempts (and 3 repeats) I got the following results from direct-fire weapon hits
group 1: average probability to hit (sum (Pn)/n) = 64.5%, actual number of hits: 36/100,
group 2: average probability to hit (sum (Pn)/n) = 67%, actual number of hits: 29/100,
group 3--for this group I made a point to be at close range: average probability to hit (sum (Pn)/n) = 84%, actual number of hits: 44/100,
Ironically, missile fire is remarkably consistent
group 1: average probability to hit (sum (Pn)/n) = 77%, actual number of hits: 79/100,
group 2: average probability to hit (sum (Pn)/n) = 39%, actual number of hits: 31/100,
group 3: average probability to hit (sum (Pn)/n) = 48%, actual number of hits: 49/100,
Maybe I'm jerking my trigger finger when I fire? I don't know how I could compare to AI results since I don't know how to view AI's to-hit chances.
So if this mod changes the chance to hit to that of the DISPLAY, I dunno, that's not something I'm looking for. That's why I was using Real Hit Chance, since it changed the display to match the actual hit chances.
So does this mod actual change the chances to hit to match that display? Would it be possible to just make a version of this mod that avoids the streak-breaking mechanics without touching the chances? (I think the chances to hit are fine, I just don't like being lied to about them)
Does bots have better chance to hit head? My mercenaries have injure really often. Like every 2-3 battles. I guess it needed for game, but without called strike it's like 2% to hit head.
I've played a couple of contracts so far but can't really say at all if it makes a difference. This is all too vague.
What means future attacks: are these corrections done only for following turns or also done during an all-out attack, especially during a missile multi-attack?
So the game originally punches in a kind of random(x)^2 booster to strengthen the losing and winning side based on past results.
I guess these corrections are still not enough for some people crying on forums about RNG all the time.
Okay, so it's pointless to further use the Real Hit Chances mod if someone prefers unpolished results.
Goddess Fortuna strongly recommends this mod!
It's not a fix to make game less random. And random is fine, people are f***ed. Basically developers are made fix for all this "i have 90% to hit, why i miss".
You don't need this mod, untill you a computer with calculator inside. Untill this, vanilla is fine. For this game, ofc, there you don't have to shoot with 40% chance often.
I actually wondered if hits/misses were influenced with AI help or not. With all the missile volleys ive done, it has always seemed there was some outside influence with all the hits. Probably will be a few days before i have a chance to test this out. I am interested to see the effects tho.
SInce this mod disables that formula from being applied in the first place, Real Hit Chances will just lie to you while this mod is active.
However, I have another question:
I get what you mean by streaks. But what do you mean by "making good shots even likelier to hit" and "making bad shots even less likelier to hit." It might be nice for you to put in the description what the formula was before and what you changed.
Granted, that only alters the on-screen results, as opposed to this mod's nixing the 'corrected' rolls, but can they co-exist?
EDIT: Log text moved to 'Bugs' tab (and created a dedicated report).